Cash this month vs. economic value
Compare how media spend changes campaign cash and economic value over time.
Awaiting calculation
Black Friday Simulator
What kind of Black Friday do you want to win?
Margin, new customers or cash from stock?
Campaign objectives
Ways to measure success
What would make Black Friday worth it for your brand? It could be earning a better margin on sales to existing customers, bringing in new ones or turning slow-moving stock into cash.
Capture margin
Prioritize contribution margin in reais during the campaign.
- Primary metric
- Incremental margin in the campaign window
Break-even acquisition
Acquire customers whose first-order margin pays for media.
- Primary metric
- New customers at break-even
Acquisition with payback
Spend beyond first-order margin when repeat purchases can cover the difference in time.
- Primary metric
- New customers, payback and cash limit
Clear inventory
Compare cash recovered during Black Friday with the best alternative for slow-moving stock.
- Primary metric
- Cash recovered and sell-through
Simulator
Enter your numbers
Start with the example or use your own numbers. Any changes you make are saved in this browser.
Recommendation
You can edit the assumptions now. Results and export will be available once calculations are connected.
- Acquisition
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- Existing customers
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- Slow-moving stock
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- Margin per BF order
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- Volume to match baseline margin
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- Future value of a BF customer
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- Media at maximum economic value
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Compare the modes
Select your plan or one of the three acquisition modes as the tracking target.
Scroll sideways to see all columns.
Black Friday customer payback
See how long it takes for cumulative margin per customer to cover acquisition cost.
Awaiting calculation
How much cash can slow-moving stock free up?
Compare the cash recovered from clearance with the best alternative for the inventory.
What the discount costs
See margin per order and how much more you need to sell to offset each discount.
Scroll sideways to see all columns.
Awaiting calculation
Tracking dashboard
Track the selected mode’s targets after 7, 90 and 365 days.
Take your simulation into a spreadsheet
Once calculations are available, you can download your inputs, scenario comparison and Black Friday targets in an .xlsx workbook.
Metrics glossary
- Margin per order. What remains from the sale after accounting for returns, taxes, fees, product cost, shipping and extras.
- Media spend curve. Shows how acquisition costs change with media spend. Average CAC covers all new customers. Marginal CAC estimates the cost of acquiring one more.
- Payback period. How long it takes for the margin from the first order and repeat purchases to cover the cost of acquiring a customer.
- Future customer value. The margin a new customer’s repeat purchases may generate over the next 12 months, expressed in today’s money.
- Economic value of the campaign. Combines margin from new customers, gains from additional sales to existing customers and gains from clearance, after deducting media spend and fixed campaign costs.
- Model limits. Use the simulation to compare scenarios. After the campaign, check your estimates against what actually happened.
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